§ Comments on Efforts by Japanese Companies

There's been a little discussion in the UseNet conference sci.space.policy about the statements by the two Japanese construction giants about building in outer space. The following two quotes well articulate two relevant issues:

Dwayne Allen Day cautiously commented:

"Take these proposals with several tons of salt. They are not realistic. From what I have heard, these are mainly done by the Japanese firms for internal promotion purposes. To attract hotshot structural engineers, among other reasons: "Come work for Godzilla Heavy Construction and design bases on the Moon!" Then you spend the rest of your career designing innovative parking garages for downtown Tokyo."

Henry Spencer replied:

"In the US, yes. Japan is a little different. In US big business, if you think five years ahead you're a long-term planner, and if you think ten years ahead you're a visionary. But big Japanese companies think much farther ahead, and their long-term plans go decades ahead.

"Understand, we are talking about a slightly different approach to things here. When a US company announces a long-term plan, this is as much as public-relations gimmick as anything else. You don't see Japanese firms putting out press releases about their long-term plans, because those plans are marked Company Confidential (however you say that in Japanese). But they do exist. Not as detailed roadmaps of everything the company is going to do, but as general ideas of which way it will probably be heading and what preparations need to be made.

"Partly the big Japanese companies think farther ahead because they have to. Their decisions are made by a lengthy consensus process, which simply has a long lead time -- they *have* to get started on major decisions earlier than autocratic Western managements which can turn the company around by decree overnight. A longer view is also just part of their corporate culture, partly because they have more patient investors. (American institutional investors, e.g. pension funds, are essentially required by law to take a very short-term view, and this affects how the investees think.)

"The design drawings for space hotels etc. are not something that people actually expect to build to. They're conceptual studies, exercises in exploring the terrain. The companies certainly are not putting major money into them, yet. But that doesn't mean they're not serious about it. At least some of them seriously expect to do these things, *eventually*, and they are doing small amounts of work on it now so that they are ready to move in when the economics improve enough to make it profitable."

Of course, the economics improves dramatically once people stop thinking we would need to launch it all up from Earth, and start using materials already in space, which means engineering …

I (Mark Prado) take particular interest in this because I consult to Western engineering, construction and architecture companies. Usually, I'm the only American there, working among predominantly British and Australian people. These companies are practically never interested in anything except what is on the immediate horizon, never beyond a few years. Indeed, even in discussing space development casually, the Europeans seem much less seriously interested than Americans back home (the Australians are a split group), and don't take much interest in discussing the engineering elements in their own engineering field as applied to space, even casually, which is the opposite of many of my American engineering friends. With the Europeans, the conversation will usually change quickly to something like piling on the soft soil in a particular area, or problems with a subcontractor's recommended transformer system design for a dam under construction. An American, on the other hand, and sometimes an Australian, will often start inquiring right into the heart of the matter, and come back in the following days to discuss what they've been thinking about how to best approach the issues.

In all my time in Asia, I have met only a few Russians. These guys are usually gung-ho, without a shred of doubt that PERMANENT was about to unfold into space, and some make sure I understood that the Russians were the first real pioneers in space. This experience really underscored the cultural and psychological elements regarding space industrialization and colonization using asteroidal and lunar materials, and made me glad I included a few of my old Russian language textbooks in my heavy personal shipment to Asia just in case the future takes a turn for the better as regards the Russian space program.

People outside of the USA and Russia have absolutely no disadvantage or lack of opportunity to develop space in this multinational world. The differences are purely cultural, psychological, and life values-driven. Once we understand this, there's no reason why Singaporeans, Arabs, or anyone else couldn't take the lead in space industrialization and colonization.